Introduction
The ripple effects of former President Donald Trump’s trade policies continue to reverberate through Wall Street, even as his presidency fades into history. Tariffs on steel, aluminum, and Chinese goods—originally imposed between 2018 and 2020—remain a thorn in the side of global supply chains, corporate margins, and investor confidence. While the Biden administration has maintained some of these measures, the specter of escalating trade wars and potential new tariffs under a future Trump term has reignited fears. Here, we explore 10 stocks now loathed by analysts due to their vulnerability to the enduring—or resurgent—impact of Trump-era tariffs.
1. Ford Motor Company (F)
Industry: Automotive
Tariff Impact: Ford’s reliance on imported steel and aluminum has made it a poster child for tariff-induced pain. Despite efforts to localize supply chains, rising material costs have squeezed margins. Recent analyst downgrades highlight concerns over prolonged trade tensions, especially if Trump pushes for stricter auto import rules. Shares are down 12% year-to-date (YTD) as of Q3 2023, with Morgan Stanley slashing its price target by 15%.
2. Boeing Co. (BA)
Industry: Aerospace & Defense
Tariff Impact: Boeing’s struggles extend beyond the 737 MAX crises. China, a critical growth market, retaliated against U.S. tariffs by halting orders and favoring Airbus. With 40% of Boeing’s backlog once tied to Chinese demand, Barclays warns that unresolved trade disputes could delay recovery. The stock has underperformed the S&P 500 by 25% over the past year.
3. Deere & Company (DE)
Industry: Agricultural Machinery
Tariff Impact: Chinese tariffs on U.S. soybeans and pork crushed farmers’ incomes, reducing demand for Deere’s equipment. Although China resumed some agricultural purchases in 2023, analysts at JPMorgan note Deere’s sales in the Midwest remain 18% below pre-tariff levels. The stock’s P/E ratio has contracted to 15x, down from 22x in 2020.
4. General Motors (GM)
Industry: Automotive
Tariff Impact: Like Ford, GM faces dual pressures: higher input costs and retaliatory Chinese tariffs on its SUV exports. GM’s Shanghai-made Cadillacs now face a 25% markup in China, eroding competitiveness. Goldman Sachs recently removed GM from its “Conviction Buy” list, citing “tariff overhangs” as a key risk.
5. Whirlpool Corporation (WHR)
Industry: Appliances
Tariff Impact: Whirlpool initially cheered tariffs on foreign competitors but now grapples with soaring steel prices. Q2 2023 earnings missed estimates, with CFO Jim Peters blaming “unabated raw material inflation.” Raymond James downgraded the stock to “Underperform,” predicting a 10% downside.
6. Hasbro Inc. (HAS)
Industry: Consumer Goods
Tariff Impact: The toymaker imports 60% of its products from China. Tariffs on Chinese goods forced Hasbro to raise prices, contributing to a 7% drop in Q2 revenue. With families prioritizing essentials over toys, UBS warns of “structural demand erosion” and cut its rating to “Sell.”
7. Tyson Foods Inc. (TSN)
Industry: Meat Processing
Tariff Impact: China’s 25% tariff on U.S. pork disrupted Tyson’s export ambitions. Despite pandemic-driven domestic demand, Tyson’s international sales fell 22% YTD. Bernstein analysts note that Tyson’s debt-to-EBITDA ratio has spiked to 3.5x, limiting flexibility amid trade uncertainty.
8. Caterpillar Inc. (CAT)
Industry: Heavy Machinery
Tariff Impact: Caterpillar’s global footprint hasn’t shielded it from steel tariffs or China’s infrastructure slowdown. Q3 sales in Asia-Pacific dropped 9%, and CEO Jim Umpleby warned of “prolonged trade headwinds” during the earnings call. CAT shares have lagged the Industrial sector by 14% in 2023.
9. Best Buy Co. (BBY)
Industry: Retail
Tariff Impact: As a major electronics retailer, Best Buy faces margin compression from tariffs on Chinese-made gadgets. Despite shifting some sourcing to Vietnam, tariffs on components like semiconductors persist. Wells Fargo estimates a 3% hit to 2024 EPS, prompting a downgrade to “Equal Weight.”
10. SolarEdge Technologies (SEDG)
Industry: Renewable Energy
Tariff Impact: Solar tariffs on Chinese panels have doubled equipment costs for U.S. installers. SolarEdge’s gross margins fell to 28% in Q2, down from 34% in 2022. With the Biden administration maintaining some Trump-era solar tariffs, Jefferies predicts a “lost decade” for residential solar growth, slashing SEDG’s target price by 30%.
Conclusion
The legacy of Trump’s tariffs lingers like a shadow over these 10 stocks, underscoring how geopolitical gambits can morph into long-term liabilities. While some companies have adapted through supply chain diversification or price hikes, others remain tethered to the whims of trade policy. For investors, the message is clear: In an era of economic nationalism, vigilance toward tariff-exposed sectors is non-negotiable. As the 2024 election looms, the threat of renewed trade wars could make these stocks perennial laggards—or unexpected turnaround plays if détent emerges. Either way, their fates are inextricably tied to the ballot box.
